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» Scarleteen Boards: 2000 - 2014 (Archive) » SCARLETEEN CENTRAL » Sex Basics and Sexual Health » The math behind pregnancy

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Author Topic: The math behind pregnancy
Member # 107475

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I've always found that looking at the mathematics and statistics is a good way to calm any nerves I might have.

Anyway, I've done some research lately on the probability rates behind pregnancy, and I was hoping I could post it here so someone could verify.

From what I've found, when a woman is under the perfect fertile conditions for pregnancy (ovulating), the risk through unprotected sex is approximately 9-11%. Princeton study

Now with this, I've also read that only approximately 25% of pregnancies will last. 3/4 times the body will spontaneously abort the pregnancy due to some kind of defect.

So this takes the risk of pregnancy, while under perfectly fertile conditions and no contraceptives, from ~10%, to about 2.5%, correct? (which seems to be the reasoning behind posts here - pregnancy odds thread )

And then from there, that pregnancy risk can be lessened further by the use of contraceptives.

Does that make sense? I'm looking at it and it seems to make sense, just wondering if its correct.

Posts: 13 | From: Pennsylvania | Registered: May 2013  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Patricia H
Member # 103815

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Hey, Dukhi, and welcome back to Scarleteen.

While it does make sense, I would like to remind you that statistics, like generalizations, look only at the average population, but says nothing about the individual. Unfortunately, I realize this does nothing to calm your nerves, but I applaud you for trying to come up with ways to quell your unease.

Looking at your previous post, the fact that you used protection and didn't ejaculate at all puts you at the lowest risk for pregnancy possible. I'd like to insert here, too, the double-edged nature of mathematics and statistics: while we'd like to tell you here that you have a 0% risk of pregnancy given what you did, scientifically speaking, we can't. The only way there is 0% risk of pregnancy is through abstinence.

Too, perhaps I could suggest this: the fact that you notice yourself feeling uneasy could be your body's way of telling you that maybe you might want to hold off on sexual activities for now until you have a better idea about sex in general. Fortunately, you have come to the right place for just that; we have a plethora of articles, blog pieces and resources readily available for you to peruse, study, and educate yourself with so that the next time you engage in sexual activities that use to give you the heebie-jeebies because you were unsure of yourself, you won't feel that way again. [Smile] In fact, you'll go into it feeling confident and knowledgeable--key ingredients to having a good time and enjoying yourself.

Have fun and good luck! [Smile]

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum. - Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid's Tale

Posts: 234 | From: Hawaii | Registered: Feb 2013  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator

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